10 profitable live timing signals since inception in May
2004 (+46.9% cum. return).
This website gives real-time trading signals for the NASDAQ
(2 weeks to 4 months) from the ContraQuant sentiment-based market timing model. It is a hype-free zone - we
are not selling subscriptions - and there is no cost to view the information.
We currently publish our real-time trading reports with a delay of several weeks on this website (scroll down
this page to see the latest), though our referees always receive the latest report in real time. You might also qualify
to receive timing signals free in real time if you are a professional investor. Read the FAQs
page for info.
You can download each and every one of our hundreds of real-time ContraQuant reports issued in advance of the profitable
signals shown in the above chart. Just click on 2004
to drill down to your period of interest. The reports are linked as pdf files underneath each year's summary.
Read the FAQs
to learn more about the model and its contrarian investment philosophy. The chart above and on the Track Record
page illustrate the accuracy of the model's real-time signals at a glance. All trades were signalled in
Performance integrity and transparency are important to us. That is why Jack Schwager and our
other referees have received these reports every week without fail. We have an unbroken record of documentation.
Each report was issued on the actual date shown at the bottom of the pdf file. Live reports have been issued from the
model every week without fail since May 2004 as the statement at the top of this page attests.
Returns reflect actual real-time performance. They have NOT been generated by back-testing. However, there
is no guarantee that future performance will be as good as in the past. Please scroll for the disclaimer.
This website is set up merely to publicly and transparently show the live performance of our market
timing signals. You can view the model's verified real-time record
in depth, as well as its analytical foundation and background (FAQs
LATEST PUBLISHED COMMENTARY (w/e 2nd January
Our current model reading is SQ=67%
bullish probability. The current model stance as
of 2nd January is NO ACTION.
To understand exactly how to interpret this signal
read the FAQs
All trades are signalled in real time through our weekly reports just like all others shown on this website.
Here is the latest public weekly report in full:
The model stance may have changed since the above report, which is published with a delay of several weeks.
We send our latest report in real time to referees after every week's close (signalling the next week's trades in advance).
You may also be eligible to receive real-time signals for free if you are a professional.
Of our 10 winning closed trades, 8 were LONG and 2 were SHORT. Our sole losing trade was
a LONG trade in 2008. All trades are based on the model's mid-term forecast of the NASDAQ index.
For details, read the reports under the year-by-year "live performance" tabs, scrolling down to the linked .pdf files. Register
for weekly updates here
Every weekend we post a new real-time report listing the latest model reading and any trades to be executed in
the coming week.
Our historic Track Record
of more than 240 weekly real-time reports since May 2004 can be downloaded via this website.
Click on the 2004
tabs for in-depth details year by year.
Trades are always posted in advance and recorded at actual values filled. Independent referees have been receiving
our reports every week since the model's inception in May 2004.
Our model has given only one losing signal in this time, but we do not expect every trade to win.
Our infrequent signals appear to offer high-probability trading opportunities but please do your own research
to verify this.
The ContraQuant model's primary goals are:
1. Loss avoidance by identifying high-probability NASDAQ index trades (either LONG or SHORT).
2. Double-digit positive absolute returns
in all types of market, with relatively low
volatility. Do verify this on the Track Record
3. Long-term resilience
. We intend our model's real-time performance to remain robust
for years to come. This will depend on the quality of our model's data inputs and continuous R&D (learn
more in the FAQs
To reiterate, 10 out of 11 market timing signals so far have been profitable. This is visually shown in the
chart above and on the Track Record
page. There has been only one incorrect signal so far, although this offers no guarantees for the
We have achieved double-digit annual returns trading a notional $1m in real time in every year except 2008 (even in 2008
we outperformed the NASDAQ). Our live returns have generally beaten most hedge fund indices. Please see the
page for further info.
You are welcome to make the most of the free information on this website, provided that you read the disclaimer
You may also apply to receive the model's market timing signals in real time by getting in touch via the Contact