Real-time NASDAQ stock market timing signals

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PLEASE NOTE: This website is currently undergoing a major update to be released soon.  In the meantime, our weekly reports continue to be issued to a closed distribution list (+16.2% for 2009 YTD).  Do get in touch via the contact page to see if you qualify.

 
"I confirm that I've received the ContraQuant weekly reports and associated trading signals in real time, every week since May 2004."
(Jack Schwager, author of the best-selling 'Market Wizards' books)

Live Performance of ContraQuant Model's Market Timing Signals versus actual NASDAQ Composite Chart 
(Green= LONG, Red = SHORT, Blue= Exit and Closed Profit)

CompositeWeeklySQSignalsChart10SepUpdate.jpg

Chart Notes: Numbers from 1 to 9 with arrows show historic trade entry points (scroll down this page for details).  Red numbers/arrows indicate SHORT trades and green ones are LONG trades. Blue rectangles with "exit" signify trade closures.  Blue percentage indicates closed profit.  All live weekly reports since May 2004 can be downloaded from this website to prove that there were no other trades.  Chart last updated on September 10th 2008 and will be updated again shortly.

10 profitable live timing signals since inception in May 2004 (+46.9% cum. return). 
 
This website gives real-time trading signals for the NASDAQ (2 weeks to 4 months) from the ContraQuant sentiment-based market timing model.  It is a hype-free zone - we are not selling subscriptions - and there is no cost to view the information.
 
We currently publish our real-time trading reports with a delay of several weeks on this website (scroll down this page to see the latest), though our referees always receive the latest report in real time.  You might also qualify to receive timing signals free in real time if you are a professional investor.  Read the FAQs or Contact page for info.
 
You can download each and every one of our hundreds of real-time ContraQuant reports issued in advance of the profitable signals shown in the above chart.  Just click on 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007 or 2008 to drill down to your period of interest.  The reports are linked as pdf files underneath each year's summary.
 
Read the FAQs to learn more about the model and its contrarian investment philosophy.  The chart above and on the Track Record  page illustrate the accuracy of the model's real-time signals at a glance.  All trades were signalled in advance.
 
Performance integrity and transparency are important to us.  That is why Jack Schwager and our other referees have received these reports every week without fail.  We have an unbroken record of documentation.
 
Each report was issued on the actual date shown at the bottom of the pdf file.  Live reports have been issued from the model every  week without fail since May 2004 as the statement at the top of this page attests. 
 
Returns reflect actual real-time performance. They have NOT been generated by back-testing.  However, there is no guarantee that future performance will be as good as in the past.  Please scroll for the disclaimer.
 
This website is set up merely to publicly and transparently show the live performance of our market timing signals.  You can view the model's verified real-time record in depth, as well as its analytical foundation and background (FAQs).   
 
LATEST PUBLISHED COMMENTARY (w/e 2nd January 2009)
 
Our current model reading is SQ=67% bullish probability.  The current model stance as of 2nd January is NO ACTION.  To understand exactly how to interpret this signal read the FAQs.  
 
All trades are signalled in real time through our weekly reports just like all others shown on this website. 
 
Here is the latest public weekly report in full:
 
The model stance may have changed since the above report, which is published with a delay of several weeks.  We send our latest report in real time to referees after every week's close (signalling the next week's trades in advance).  You may also be eligible to receive real-time signals for free if you are a professional. 
 
Of our 10 winning closed trades, 8 were LONG and 2 were SHORT.  Our sole losing trade was a LONG trade in 2008.  All trades are based on the model's mid-term forecast of the NASDAQ index. 
 
For details, read the reports under the year-by-year "live performance" tabs, scrolling down to the linked .pdf files.  Register for weekly updates here.
 
Every weekend we post a new real-time report listing the latest model reading and any trades to be executed in the coming week. 
 
Our historic Track Record of more than 240 weekly real-time reports since May 2004 can be downloaded via this website.  Click on the 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007 or 2008 tabs for in-depth details year by year.
 
Trades are always posted in advance and recorded at actual values filled.  Independent referees have been receiving our reports every week since the model's inception in May 2004. 
 
Our model has given only one losing signal in this time, but we do not expect every trade to win.  Our infrequent signals appear to offer high-probability trading opportunities but please do your own research to verify this.
 
The ContraQuant model's primary goals are:
 
1.  Loss avoidance by identifying high-probability NASDAQ index trades (either LONG or SHORT).
 
2.  Double-digit positive absolute returns in all types of market, with relatively low volatility.  Do verify this on the Track Record  page.
 
3.  Long-term resilience.  We intend our model's real-time performance to remain robust for years to come.  This will depend on the quality of our model's data inputs and continuous R&D (learn more in the FAQs). 
 
To reiterate, 10 out of 11 market timing signals so far have been profitable.  This is visually shown in the chart above and on the Track Record page.  There has been only one incorrect signal so far, although this offers no guarantees for the future.
 
We have achieved double-digit annual returns trading a notional $1m in real time in every year except 2008 (even in 2008 we outperformed the NASDAQ).  Our live returns have generally beaten most hedge fund indices.  Please see the Track Record page for further info.
 
You are welcome to make the most of the free information on this website, provided that you read the disclaimer below.
 
You may also apply to receive the model's market timing signals in real time by getting in touch via the Contact page.

 
Winning signals since inception (May 2004): 10
Losing signals since inception (May 2004): 1
Return since inception (May 2004): +46.9%
Return in 2007: +18.9%
Return in 2008: -13.4%
 
We only count successfully closed trades as "winning signals".  Please see our Track Record or click on the yearly "Performance" tabs (top left) for more depth.
 
All trades are signalled in advance according to rigid rules.  For further information on performance integrity please read our FAQs
 
There is no guarantee that future trades will be as successful as past ones.  Please do your own research and read the disclaimer below carefully.

Positive Partnerships Ltd 2004-2008

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER:

Our timing signals and comments are for research and information purposes only, and should not be considered as investment advice.  Descriptions of trading posture and trades simulate our own notional or real investment activity, and do not in any way infer that such actions are likely to be profitable.  Reliance upon information provided by us is at your own risk, and we shall not be held liable for any loss due to posted timing signals and comments.  Further, we are not registered with any association in any capacity to give investment advice.  We make no representation, warranties or guarantees, explicit or implied, regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information displayed on this website or in our reports or external articles, or any other information sent by email or in any other form.  All information is supplied under the condition that no obligation, responsibility or liability shall be incurred by www.market-timing-signals.com or its principals for any loss or damage, whether incidental, indirect or consequential, in connection with, caused by or arising from any use of or reliance upon the information supplied.  Further, all those who view said information agree irrevocably in advance that only general stock market information is being provided, and that if they choose to use this information to trade securities in their own account, they do so entirely at their own risk.  All website visitors are urged to seek professional investment advice in order to properly evaluate the information provided. Past performance does not in any way guarantee future performance.  We do not give investment advice. Our comments regarding the stock market are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell any type of financial instrument at any time.  A qualified investment advisor should be consulted prior to making any investment.  The information contained herein is provided solely to enable you to make your own investment decision and does not constitute any recommendation or advice to enter into any investment agreement or transaction. No recommendation is made (directly or indirectly or by implication) as to the merits of or the suitability of any investment or transaction and no warranty is given as to the completeness or reliability of this information. All information provided is only to be construed as opinions and to be used as an information service only.  The contents of this website and our emails are the subject of copyright. By subscribing to or viewing our content, you agree not to copy or distribute any of our information. Vigorous legal action will be taken against any breach of copyright.